Black Friday and Cyber Monday are famous in the US for the big discounts and therefore big spending. In China, they created their own version called Single's Day -- on November 11 or 11/11, which began as a protest of sorts against Valentine's Day, propelled by college students in the 1990s. To show the incredible buying power of the Chinese consumer, in just the first two minutes of shopping, over $1 billion was spent at Alibaba alone and by the end of the 24 hours, Alibaba's sales hit a record of $25.3 billion, more than 40 percent higher than Singles Day 2016. Yes 40 percent growth! JD.com, the #2 retailer in China, sold $19.1 billion!
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 due to a broad-based recovery around the world. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF adjusted their forecast up 0.1 percentage point to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018.
Today almost all of the headlines are about Apple's iPhone launch and that is well deserved. I've been a iPhone user myself for 10 years and am excited for the new phone (but not the rumored $1000 price tag). Since the iPhone news will be covered by a million different sites, let's look at the other side of the globe where China is a very different market and one changing at breakneck pace. Did you know that last year, Chinese consumers spent $5.5 trillion (yes Trillion) through mobile payment platforms? To put that in perspective that's about 50 times more than their American counterparts where Apple pay just hasn't caught on. So why is China succeeding where Apple is not? Let's take a look at China's mobile payment market.
Thanks to Uncle David for forwarding a CNBC article on how famed hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller raised his stakes in Chinese companies in the last quarter. According to recent 13-F filings, his firm Duquesne Capital bought Chinese consumer and tech stocks in the second quarter.
The S&P 500 is roughly halfway through earnings season with 237 companies having reported. It has been a very strong period so far with 79% of companies beating expectations vs an average 73% over the last 10 years. Earnings are on track for double-digit growth once again and this should be a bullish catalyst for the market in the second half of the year. As we discussed in our last quarterly webcast for clients, reported earnings continue to accelerate and we view this as extremely positive for the stock market. Here is the chart from our call:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its China's GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 to 6.7% and 6.4% respectively. This is up from an upgrade made in April to 6.6% and 6.2%. China's growth is expected to continue to be a key driver for a firming recovery of the global economy.
This year, emerging markets have run ahead of the S&P 500 after years of underperformance. Thanks to a declining dollar and continued monthly inflows, emerging markets have been a shining star in the 1st half of the year. Now the question is: will the trend continue? Let's take a quick look at a couple of charts.
While most of us are used to seeing American companies expand around the world, it is still rare to see Chinese companies coming to the US. That appears to be changing as venture backed companies are raising huge amounts of money to expand globally. Alibaba just held a huge conference in Detroit and now one of their investments is coming to the US -- bike sharing. Chinese bike sharing is a massive on demand service - think of it as the Uber of bikes but much bigger with faster growth. Now the two Chinese giants in the space, Mobike and OfoInc, are eyeing the potential of international expansion and they are running trials in the US. While it is still in the early going, Chinese bike sharing is booming and these two companies have the benefits of experience of millions of daily riders. Both companies have raised huge amounts of money this year at over $1 billion valuations.
The 4th time was the charm for mainland Chinese stocks which were rejected from MSCI for the past three years. MSCI announced that domestic Chinese stocks will be included in MSCI's global emerging-market index for the first time -- inclusion will begin in 2018. It is largely a symbolic victory for China as they will finally be included in the popular MSCI indices but with just a 0.7% weighting.
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