Bubbles are the only things that matter. The rest of it is boring. You show up for work, markets are at normal levels, and there's not much you can do. It's all trivial. But in a great bubble you can get your clients' arses out of the way, and the money you can save can be quite legendary." - Jeremy Grantham
The financial services industry generally frowns upon market prognosticators. "Stay the course," they say. This is especially true in recent years since passive investments have outperformed active ones. Admittedly, peering into one's financial crystal ball and voicing an opinion can be a risky endeavor. Besides the obvious risk of being wrong, another risk is being labeled a perma-bull or perma-bear. In article after article that I read, the media loves to turn to its favorite go-to bulls and go-to bears for an appropriate quote. Unfortunately, few individuals are permitted to change their minds and even fewer do it well.
At Runnymede, we do a lot of research, and our view is dynamic, not fixed. Ultimately, our market outlook is reflected in the positioning of our clients' portfolios.