Are stock market apps making you a bad investor?

stock-624712_960_720.jpgIt wasn't so long ago when people would check stock prices in the newspaper with their morning coffee. You could check your portfolio once a month when your account statement would arrive in the mail.

Fast forward to today and thanks to the internet and phone apps, you can check your investments up to the second. However, is having so much data at your fingertips making you a bad investor?

Per a recent Wall Street Journal article, the answer for many people is yes -- for the simple reason that they tend to make investment decisions based on short-term losses in their portfolio, ignoring their long-term investment plan. Behavioral economists call that tendency "myopic loss aversion" and this is an increasing problem in todays always connected world.

Economic Data Says Market Can Go Higher

bullish-market.jpgStocks continued to move up last week as all major U.S. indices hit new highs. Investor optimism rose as expectations for deregulation, possible tax cuts and fiscal stimulus under the new administration accelerated. These same factors put upward pressure on bond yields and the U.S. dollar. A strong Dollar has historically been good for the stock market. The reasoning is simple. If you are a European or Japanese, would you leave your money in a bank which takes a piece of your money given negative interest rate policies; or would you rather send your money to the US where we have positive interest rates and a rising stock market?

Tom Lee: Republican "Revolution" Could Extend Bull Market

tom lee.jpgRunnymede has been bullish on the stock market since early July because of improving earnings and good value relative to fixed income. As we ahead to 2017, we remain positive. Former JP Morgan Chief Equity Strategist Tom Lee shares our enthusiasm for equities in a recent interview on CNBC.

8 Days Later: Trump effect on financial markets

trump-financial markets.jpgIt's been 8 days since the Presidential Election and financial markets have had quite a wild ride. On election night, S&P futures traded down limit of -5%. It appeared that markets would react strongly to the downside much like after the Brexit vote. However, the markets quickly digested the surprising Trump decision and markets have traded sharply higher on hopes that Trump's policies will be inflationary and stimulate the economy. While it is too early to tell what he will be able to accomplish, financial markets have wagered some early bets on who the winners and losers will be. The early winner is financial stocks. Trump is widely expected to roll back the regulations of Dodd-Frank which were enacted after the financial crisis of 2008. Financials are also benefiting from the rise in long term interest rates which benefits their net interest margin and equals larger profits. The sharp move in interest rates caused headaches for high dividend stocks which were the hardest hit with REITs, consumer staples and utilities all in the red.

S&P on track to post best earnings since 2014

As we move past Election Day, financial markets should be able to refocus on what truly matters: company fundamentals. This should serve as a catalyst to push equity prices higher with earnings finally back on the rise. It has been a tough period for earnings because of the strength in the US Dollar and extreme volatility in crude oil prices. This trend appears to have finally stabilized. The energy sector is expected to post a flat quarter after posting huge losses for the previous four quarters.

The 2016 Presidential Election and the Stock Market

Halloween has come and gone. My two witches and one Ghost Buster put in an impressive two hours of trick or treating in our neighborhood and have the candy to prove it. Yet, people are nervous. At least judging by the frequency of questions we're asked about the implications of the upcoming Presidential election, it's the two "ghouls" staring down November 8th that have investors more scared than in any other election of my lifetime. With less than a week to go before heading to the voting booths, here's a little data and perspective.

QE side effect: Corporations are getting paid to borrow

side_effects.jpgWe have all seen pharmaceutical commercials on TV where a listing of common side effects may include diarrhea, nausea and drowsiness. In today's financial markets, central banks are expanding their balance sheets by trillions of dollars annually and new side effects are on the way. This week saw a new milestone in the world of negative interest rates, when Henkel and Sanofi became the first public companies to sell new Euro bonds for more than the buyers will get back.

The Downside of Passive Investing

Earlier this month, I was invited to make an appearance on CNBC's "The Closing Bell" to discuss the topic "Is this the end of a stock picker's market?" I enjoyed the lively debate with Ross Gerber and Evan Newmark. In case you missed it, click the video link below. Since one can only say so much in a 4 minute segment, I'd like to share some additional thoughts with our loyal Runnymede readers.

Many articles have been written about the shift from active to passive investing. The thesis is simple. The majority of active mutual fund managers underperform their index and also charge a higher fee. This is a double whammy for an investor's bottom line. Therefore, the solution seems simple: move your money into low cost index funds and that should lead to higher returns over the long term. Unfortunately, it's not that easy. Let's take a look at the potential pitfalls of passive investing.

Will S&P earnings drive the market to new heights?

Runnymede made one of the earliest calls on the corporate earnings recession in February of 2015. S&P earnings have been flat out terrible for 5 of the last 6 quarters with double-digit declines. However last quarter, the S&P showed signs of turning the corner. Analysts had forecast 10% growth heading into the first quarter but companies still fell well short of that mark for essentially a flat quarter. As 2nd quarter earnings season kicks off, analysts are even more bullish with S&P reported earnings growth forecast at 15%. While we do not expect this number to be that great, if it can even show high single digit growth, it could very well prove to be a catalyst for stocks to hit new highs.

The Market Is Broken: Thoughts on Big Investors and Lack of Oversight

In the financial markets, we have always had two important components: investors and regulators. Today, we are seeing governments as significant market participants that impact global markets. Sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds around the world are now among the largest owners of publicly traded stocks and bonds. China and Japan alone represent $5 trillion in public funds out of an estimated total $30 trillion of investments owned by 160 countries. No doubt these are investors of great size that can crowd out individual and institutional investors.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Runnymede Capital Management, Inc.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Runnymede Capital Management, Inc. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Runnymede Capital Management, Inc. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Runnymede Capital Management, Inc.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.