How Will Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Impact the Stock Market?

On Tuesday, President elect Joe Biden announced that former Fed Chair Janet Yellen is his pick to be Treasury Secretary. Given her successful tenure as Fed Chair from 2014 to 2018, the pick looks like a winner from the start. Let's take a look at why she is a great choice in the current environment.

The Pandemic's Impact on the Economy and Financial Markets

On November 9, 2020, Andy and Chris spoke on a zoom call with the friends of Tuckahoe Public Library to discuss "Financial Literacy: The Pandemic's Impact on the Economy and Financial Markets." In the talk, we cover a lot of ground including:

Is the stock market predicting a Biden victory?

Earlier this week, we said that the market may be predicting another Trump upset, but another indicator is predicting our incumbent president's loss. The "Presidential Predictor," popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 performance from July 31 to October 31. Going back to 1944, it has found that a positive move over that period usually translates to an incumbent victory, while a negative move translates to a loss. 

Is the stock market predicting another Trump victory?

Most polls have Biden well ahead of President Trump and betting markets have Trump as an underdog with just a week to go before Election Day. However, we know that in 2016, Trump was in a similar position so it wouldn't be that shocking to see another upset win for Trump. The battleground states are very tight races so anything is possible. What is the stock market telling us about who will win the White House?

Would a Biden victory mean big losses to your investment portfolio?

The Presidential election is just 26 days away and many investors are worried about the implications to their investments. While we know that polling isn't perfect, former VP Joe Biden is leading national polls and is well ahead of where Hillary Clinton was four years ago. A lot can happen in four weeks, but if Joe Biden wins the election, will his policies mean higher taxes and potential big losses to your investment portfolio?

New Market Highs and Rising Risks in the New Normal

Recall back to March when everything in the New York tri-state area closed in order to slow the spread of corona virus. Outside of New York, your timeline may have been different but the experience is likely the same. We stayed home. Kids learned remotely. The economy slumped. Jobless claims skyrocketed. Uncertainty was the only thing certain. This week, the S&P 500 hit a new highs. Wait, what?!

Does the China COVID recovery point to a V-shaped US recovery?

With the COVID-19 shutdown profoundly impacting the US economy with over 30 million job losses, just one in 10 fund managers expect a V-shaped recovery according to the FT. Is this the right call? Luckily we can look to the Far East as a crystal ball and what we may have in store in the next few months.

China re-opened their economy in mid-February so they are about 3-5 months ahead of the US economy as the US is opening states at differing schedules.

What does it suggest about a V-shaped recovery? Some sectors have rebounded in a strong V, while others have been slow to recover. Let's take a closer look.

Will 50% of restaurants close permanently from the COVID-19 fallout?

While many people are hoping for a V-shape recovery for the economy, restaurateurs aren't so optimistic. It is scary to think about what the restaurant landscape might look like in the fallout of COVID-19 especially for fine dining which simply can't operate at half capacity.

Macau casinos show what to expect from a Las Vegas reopening

Recently, the Las Vegas mayor Carolyn Goodman made waves for pushing for the reopening of Las Vegas. While it may not make sense from a health perspective, their economy relies on tourism, conference and gambling. Even if the governor decides to reopen, it isn't clear how quickly things can return to anything close to normal. Casinos will need to spend more on regular cleanings and gamblers will likely need to wear masks, have their temperatures checked, and sit with social distancing. This doesn't sound like an ideal environment to gamble. Whatever the case, we can look the Far East to the Macau casinos to see how they have done.

How many jobs aren't coming back right away?

In the last three weeks, over 15 million people have filed jobless claims. This is sharpest employment loss in history. The unemployment rate will surpass 15% in short order and could even go to 20%+. Optimists say that when the economy re-starts, jobs will return; however, we are concerned that not all jobs will come back right away and employment will take time to recover.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION 

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Runnymede Capital Management, Inc.-"Runnymede"), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Runnymede.  Please remember that if you are a Runnymede client, it remains your responsibility to advise Runnymede, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Runnymede is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Runnymede's current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request. Please Note: Runnymede does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Runnymede's web site or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

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